Table 5 The forecasted number of census, hospitalization days, and mortality proportion using ARIMA (1,2,1) SARIMA (1,0,1,4), SARIMA (4,0,1,4), and ARIMA (1,1,4), respectively
From: Time series analysis for forecasting neonatal intensive care unit census and neonatal mortality
Time | Predicted value | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
census number; ARIMA(1,2,1)SARIMA(1,0,1,4) | Hospitalization days | mortality proportion; ARIMA(1,1,4) | |||
All neonates SARIMA (4,0,1,4) | Live neonates ARIMA(1,0,1) | Dead neonates ARIMA (2,0,1) SARIMA(1,0,1,4) | |||
2023m1 | 94.86 | 12.48 | 20.35 | 6.49 | 3.19 |
2023m2 | 104.75 | 12.24 | 24.26 | 11.62 | 3.15 |
2023m3 | 101.67 | 11.62 | 28.13 | 9.54 | 3.79 |
2023m4 | 105.20 | 11.92 | 27.35 | 9.24 | 4.10 |
2023m5 | 101.20 | 11.92 | 27.57 | 8.59 | 4.15 |
2023m6 | 102.64 | 12.19 | 27.96 | 6.90 | 4.06 |
2023m7 | 102.84 | 12.85 | 28.46 | 6.54 | 3.70 |
2023m8 | 102.66 | 13.14 | 30.50 | 6.85 | 3.37 |
2023m9 | 102.67 | 12.68 | 32.10 | 6.51 | 3.16 |
2023m10 | 102.32 | 12.54 | 33.51 | 7.52 | 3.01 |
2023m11 | 102.48 | 12.47 | 34.72 | 8.16 | 2.98 |
2023m12 | 102.07 | 12.17 | 35.16 | 8.19 | 3.00 |
2024m1 | 101.88 | 11.98 | 35.60 | 8.73 | 2.99 |
2024m2 | 101.48 | 12.11 | 35.92 | 9.15 | 2.97 |
2024m3 | 101.28 | 12.24 | 36.12 | 7.90 | 2.89 |
2024m4 | 100.84 | 12.04 | 36.40 | 8.05 | 2.77 |
2024m5 | 100.84 | 12.14 | 36.48 | 7.80 | 2.65 |
2024m6 | 100.48 | 12.24 | 36.41 | 7.08 | 2.53 |
2024m7 | 100.02 | 12.44 | 36.20 | 8.03 | 2.44 |
2024m8 | 99.63 | 12.52 | 35.80 | 8.16 | 2.37 |
2024m9 | 99.13 | 12.40 | 35.31 | 8.78 | 2.31 |
2024m10 | 98.65 | 12.36 | 34.74 | 9.85 | 2.26 |
2024m11 | 98.11 | 12.35 | 34.09 | 8.99 | 2.2 |
2024m12 | 98.11 | 12.27 | 33.39 | 8.98 | 2.13 |
2025m1 | 96.42 | 12.21 | 32.64 | 8.97 | 2.058 |
2025m2 | 95.80 | 12.24 | 31.85 | 7.94 | 1.98 |
2025m3 | 95.17 | 12.27 | 31.02 | 8.45 | 1.91 |
2025m4 | 94.51 | 12.20 | 30.18 | 8.55 | 1.84 |
2025m5 | 93.83 | 12.23 | 29.32 | 8.85 | 1.78 |
2025m6 | 93.12 | 12.27 | 20.35 | 6.49 | 1.72 |